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Reload this Page Zenyte Shard Drop.. A Myth

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Mu

Zenyte Shard Drop.. A Myth

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Default Zenyte Shard Drop.. A Myth - Thursday 11th July, 2019, 12:35

FINALLY GOT IT.

https://prnt.sc/oe3in1

Tracking my quest for a zenyte shard drop from Demonic Gorillas.

Drop Rate: 1/750

Drop Rate with 50% increase (ROW, DR pin, LDI): 1/375

My Demonic Gorilla kill count: 904

Probability of not having received zenyte shard drop yet:

P = 1/375 = 0.00266666666

(1-P)^n = (1-0.002666666)^904---> (0.99733333334)^880 

Probability of not having received zenyte shard drop w/ drop inc. = ~ 8.95%

Probability of not having received zenyte shard drop w/o drop inc. = ~ 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I received my first elite clue scroll drop at kill count of 836.

1/128 drop rate (without ROW, LDI, DRPin increase accounted for)

1/128 = 0.0078125

(1-0.0078125)^835 = 0.00143147 = .1431% probability of not having received at least one elite clue on 835 kills; without my ROW, LDI, DRPin accounted for. That's ridiculous.

Edited by Mu

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Default Thursday 11th July, 2019, 13:23

Well damn, we can't argue with the maths

unlucky F's in the chat 

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Default Thursday 11th July, 2019, 16:45

It’s like trying to find big foot you will never find one that wasn’t donated for... Well at least I haven’t seen one yet.

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Default Thursday 11th July, 2019, 17:29

I like the math haha, but man that sucks. Wish you the best of luck!

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Default Thursday 11th July, 2019, 22:07
9 hours ago, Mu said:

Zenyte Shard regular drop rate = 1/750

Zenyte Shard drop rate with 50% increase (ROW, DR pin, LDI) = 1/375

I'm not sure, but 50% drop rate bonus means 1/562.5?

Since 100% drop rate INCREASE would be 1/375

200% would be 1/250 etc

I'm bad at math tho, correct me if I'm wrong, curious about this :)

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